Learner Value Hypothesis (Beachhead)

Hypothesis (falsifiable)

Busy adult learners (not learning for school or career advancement) will pay for a SaaS subscription (say, ~$12/mo) for LangListen because it turns language learning into a personalized, low-friction “podcast feed” that helps them feel weekly progress despite time constraints.

Why I believe it

  • Most of the evidence comes from surveying competition like Pimsleur and LanguageReactor.
  • More evidence from learners is needed.

Supporting quotes

  • “Eu tenho TDAH, tenho muita dificuldade em concentrar em uma única coisa.” — “I have ADHD; I have a lot of difficulty concentrating on a single thing.” (Attention constraints / needs low-friction routines)
  • “Hoje em dia muitas pessoas têm desafio de atenção… [estão] mexendo no computador, no mouse, no celular… e não está ouvindo nada…” — “Nowadays a lot of people have attention challenges… [they’re] messing with the computer, the mouse, the phone… and they’re not listening to anything…” (Low attention / fragmented focus)
  • “Dou atividades mais práticas: mando áudio, a pessoa terá que descrever o que entendeu; assim a pessoa habitua-se ao sotaque e perde a vergonha.” — “I give more practical activities: I send audio; the person has to describe what they understood; that way the person gets used to the accent and loses their shyness.” (Audio practice between lessons)
  • “Todos os alunos que eu perguntei quer que eu mande alguma coisa? Não… Não gosta. Só quer conversar, só quer falar.” — “Every student I asked, ‘Do you want me to send you something?’ No… they don’t like it. They just want to chat, just want to speak.” (Strong signal: extra tools/practice are resisted unless extremely low friction)

Tensions / counterevidence

  • Generative AI content still can sound “off,” causing cognitive dissonance.
  • Many learners explicitly do not want “homework” or extra tooling; they want conversation-only.
  • If “podcast feed” feels like more stuff to keep up with, it may be rejected.

What must be true in the first 5 minutes

  • Learner immediately understands: “This fits my life.”
  • Learner experiences one “win”: I can listen now (and it’s clearly personalized to my level/goals).
  • No setup burden: the product feels as easy as Duolingo to start, but more meaningful.

Metrics

  • Activation (leading): % new learners who generate + play ≥1 audio lesson within first session.
  • Habit (leading): listening minutes per week; days active per week.
  • North Star (your current preference): weekly active learners completing ≥X minutes of study audio.
  • Lagging: week-4 retention; paid conversion; churn reasons tagged as “time/effort”, “not personalized”, “not effective”.

Fastest tests (2-week sprint)

  • 6–8 learner interviews where they try the artifact live:
    • “Would you pay for this? Why / why not?”
    • “Where would this fit in your week?”
    • “What would make you stop using it?”
  • A/B concept test: “podcast feed” vs “feed for reading/listening like LanguageReactor”.

Decision rule (double down / pivot / kill)

  • Double down if ≥60% of learners say they would pay (or would “seriously try it”) and can describe a realistic weekly routine (≥3 days/week).
  • Pivot if learners consistently say the value requires a tutor pushing it, or if they strongly prefer a reading/feed workflow over audio.
  • Kill if learners do not perceive meaningful progress benefit vs existing alternatives and won’t allocate time even with minimal friction.